Hurricane Milton, now barreling toward an expected landfall on Florida’s west coast, has been rapidly upgraded and downgraded in recent days as meteorologists grapple with the storm’s destructive potential.
The storm is rated at a Category 5 hurricane. But with the storm weakening slightly to a Category 4 hurricane Wednesday morning, meteorologists say the rating doesn’t reflect the storm’s true potential.
The scale by which hurricanes are ranked — officially known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale — is a classification based on maximum sustained wind speeds, which range from 74 to 157 mph or higher. The scale doesn’t account for potentially deadly hurricane hazards such as storm surges, rainfall, river flooding and tornadoes.
In the case of Milton, experts are focusing their concerns on the storm’s growing size and the potential for massive storm surge over populated areas — two of the things that don’t factor into the category rankings. (The situation was a bit different with Helene, where the storm’s winds were a bigger concern because it made landfall in a less populated area with lots of trees and vulnerable structures.)
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes ever recorded for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center warned.
Regardless of the category, there will be life-threatening and highly destructive storm surge near and just south of the eye’s landfall, AccuWeather said. The hurricane will actually grow in size as it approaches Florida, despite the fluctuations .
Milton’s wind field is expected to continue to grow as it approaches Florida,” the hurricane center said. “In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical storm force winds approximately doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and heavy rainfall will extend well beyond the forecast cone.”
According to the hurricane center, Milton’s tropical storm force winds extended about 125 miles from the center Wednesday morning and could be as far away as 200 miles by the time Milton makes landfall.
Milton will have a storm surge unlike any hurricane in living memory for west-central Florida, with only major hurricanes in 1848 and 1921 comparable in size and coastal flooding, WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut said Tuesday afternoon on his blog.