The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dominates the 2024 debate, but control of both chambers of Congress is also still in question — and a series of fluid races could produce surprises on election night.
These simmering races could determine which party wins a majority in the House or Senate, which could have a substantial impact on the next president’s agenda. They’re decided by a mix of factors, including voter turnout and whether the candidates have a unique ability to ride the broader political winds.
Here are nine congressional races where one side should have a clear advantage but appear to be in a fight.
Texas Senate: Cruz fights to hang on
Democrats need a miracle to retain control of the Senate, and Texas may be their best chance to do so. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is giving polarizing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a run for his money by painting him as a do-nothing extremist.
Cruz is portraying Allred as too liberal for Texas by emphasizing issues like transgender rights and energy production. The two-term incumbent senator is still favored in the GOP stronghold, though some surveys show his lead over Allred is within the margin of error.
Cruz has sounded the alarm, pleading with conservative donors to send him more money to fend off an attack from Allred and his Democratic allies. There’s added intrigue because Cruz underperformed in his last Senate race in 2018, beating former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by less than 3 points.
Nebraska Senate: Populist upstart spooks GOP
This race should never have been on the radar. But Dan Osborn — a 48-year-old mechanic, union leader and Navy veteran — has made waves with his independent campaign as a populist outsider.
Osborn has significantly outraised two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer and launched high-profile ads promising to change the status quo. In one ad, he says the Senate is made up of “millionaires controlled by billionaires” and criticizes Fischer as a career politician who has failed to serve Nebraska and is in Congress only to enrich himself.
High-quality state-level polls are rare, but available surveys show Osborn narrowly leading in some states and Fischer ahead in others. Fischer remains the favorite in this ruby-red state, but what should have been a layup for her is now a real battle. Republicans have deployed the cavalry, pouring millions into smearing Osborn as a leftist Trojan horsing wresting control of the Senate from the GOP. Osborn says he will not align with either party if elected.
Maryland Senate: Can Hogan defy gravity?
Republican Larry Hogan won two races for Maryland governor in 2014 and 2018, defying gravity in the deep-blue state. Now he’s trying to take on a bigger challenge: becoming the first Republican to win a Maryland Senate seat since 1980.
Hogan is a heavy underdog in a state that Joe Biden won by a whopping 33 points in 2020, where a focus on federal issues and growing party polarization make his race tough.
He’s trying to capitalize on the moderate image that served him well in his governorship races. His rival Angela Alsobrooks, a first-time federal candidate and former Prince George’s County executive, is reminding voters of Hogan’s past anti-abortion stances and underscoring the stakes for which party controls the Senate.
Polls show Hogan dramatically outperforming Trump in Maryland but still trailing Alsobrooks.
Florida Senate: Can Democrats oust Rick Scott?
Florida is quickly disappearing from the map for Democrats, with Trump expected to win the presidential race. But as the party searches for a surprise victory on a tough Senate map, some Democrats remain hopeful that they can knock out Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla.
Scott, a former governor, has shown an uncanny ability to win statewide victories by the narrowest of margins in Florida, including during the red waves of 2010 and 2014 and the blue wave of 2018.
His rival, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla., has focused largely on reproductive rights. Democrats hope that some of Scott’s far-right positions will alienate moderates and that a ballot measure enshrining abortion access in the state constitution will help boost turnout on their side. Still, he remains the favorite.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Former Freedom Caucus leader faces a serious threat
This race has all the makings of a shocker, as Rep. Scott Perry, a far-right incumbent in a moderately Republican-leaning district, faces the battle of his political career against Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former TV news anchor who is well-known in the region.
Stelson has stalked Perry, raising huge sums and painting the former chair of the right-wing Freedom Caucus as out of touch with the district. Republicans are spending money to protect Perry, and he has responded by backtracking on some of his controversial positions, such as endorsing Social Security cuts.
The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter recently rebranded this formerly GOP-oriented race as a “toss-up.”
Virginia’s 2nd District: An early bellwether of how Republicans are holding up
First-term Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., is facing a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal after a redrawn, more Republican-friendly district helped her defeat a Democrat incumbent by about 3 points in 2022.
Virginia will be one of the first states on the East Coast where polls close on election night, so the results in this district will be seen as a harbinger of whether Republicans can hold onto the types of districts they need to retain their House majority. If Democrats flip it, it means they’re likely headed for a good night.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District: A controversial GOP freshman tries to hang on
GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden has made headlines in his first two years in Washington, between hurling obscenities at Senate pages and booing Biden during his State of the Union address.
He’s the favorite in a district previously held by centrist Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. But some Democrats see a tantalizing opportunity to convince enough voters to split their tickets and pull off a surprise. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is trying to do that by running as a moderate and acceptable alternative in the district.
Texas’ 34th District: A test of whether Latinos are drifting toward the GOP
In a year of shifting coalitions, this heavily Latino district highlights a dynamic that could shape the 2024 election. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is trying to defeat Mayra Flores, a Mexican-born millennial who has promoted far-right rhetoric and tried to channel a backlash against transgender rights.
Gonzalez is favored in this Democratic-friendly district, but polls show Trump could make gains among Latino voters. The size of that gain, and whether the district has the desire to be represented by a MAGA-aligned Latina, could potentially be a shock.
California’s 47th District: Republicans eye an open seat in Newport Beach
Two-term Rep. Katie Porter left this Orange County district to launch an unsuccessful race for the Senate. The Republican candidate is Scott Baugh, a former California state legislator and chairman of the Orange County GOP who lost to Porter by less than 4 points in 2022. The Democrat is Sen. Dave Min, who made headlines early in his candidacy by filing a drunken driving charge.
California is emerging as a bright spot for Democrats in the House this cycle. If the GOP wants to mitigate their gains, this Newport Beach-area district — a former Republican stronghold that went blue in the Trump era — may be their best chance to flip a district.