PHOENIX — Both former President Donald Trump and Arizona Senate Republican candidate Kari Lake have repeatedly made false claims that their lost elections were stolen from them. But for some Arizona voters, only Trump’s denial of the election is relevant.
For John Giza, 66, a retired Walmart employee at Show Low, the idea that Trump lost the 2020 presidential election is incomprehensible. “I believe there have been a lot of rule changes because of COVID that allow for multiple duplicate voters and people who are not eligible,” Giza said outside a Trump rally in Prescott Valley on Oct. 13, parroting Trump’s debunked claims.
But when it comes to Lake’s failed bid for governor in 2022, when she lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs, Giza believes the election was legitimate. “I’ve fought against election fraud my whole life. I don’t think she won,” said Giza, who plans to vote for Lake.
Asked why he thinks the 2022 gubernatorial race was legitimate but not the 2020 election, Giza said, “They had already started addressing the issues with people voting who weren’t supposed to vote.”
In interviews with NBC News in recent months, some Arizona voters who believe the 2020 election was rigged have said they believe Lake’s loss in 2022 was legitimate.
Karen Miller, 54, a nurse from Scottsdale, was asked about Lake in October 2023, the day Lake announced her candidacy for Senate. Miller said she believed the 2020 election was “murky at best.”
Still, Miller, a registered Republican, said she’s not convinced by Lake’s conspiracy theory when asked about Lake’s run for governor in 2022. “At this point, she’s going to lose credibility if she continues to spend time and money and energy on it,” Miller said. “That’s not going to change at this point. And if she acknowledged that, she’d probably get a lot more support.”
At a Trump rally in June, Brendan Dolleman of Scottsdale said there were “certainly problems” with the 2020 election. “In 2020, it was a COVID year. We had a lot of states outside of Arizona that went to mail-in voting for the first time.” But in 2022, he said, “I don’t know about those problems.
At a Trump rally in June, Brendan Dolleman of Scottsdale said there were “certainly issues” with the 2020 election. “In 2020, it was a Covid year. We had a lot of states outside of Arizona that went to mail-in voting for the first time.” But in 2022, he said, “I don’t know about those issues.”
At the time, Lake had not yet won the GOP primary for Senate against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Dolleman had hoped that Lamb, not Lake, would be the Republican nominee this cycle.
“I think Mark Lamb is a candidate that independents are going to flock to,” he said, adding, “I think when we use the term ‘rigged,’ it scares a lot of independents away. We have to reach out to independents to win elections.”
Lake is locked in a battle with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego to fill the seat that is soon to be vacated by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Nearly every poll in the race shows Lake trailing Gallego. Trump, by contrast, has repeatedly outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in the state, though by much smaller margins within the margin of error.
In 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996. As the votes were being counted, hundreds of pro-Trump protesters, some armed, gathered outside the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center in Phoenix in the days after the election, offering no evidence that the election was stolen from Trump.
Trump’s refusal to accept the results sowed doubt in Arizona, a state that has been rife with conspiracy theories about election denial in recent years. A Fox News poll in late August found that 32% of Arizona voters surveyed did not believe Biden was legitimately elected president. Among Republicans, it was 62%.
Taylor Hammond, 30, a real estate agent from Phoenix, does not believe Trump lost in 2020. “The ballots, what were the names of the counters?” she asked at the Oct. 13 Trump rally. “Dominion,” she recalled.
Hammond was referring to unfounded conspiracy theories that Dominion Voting Systems machines, used in several states, had rigged the 2020 presidential election. Last year, Fox News and Dominion reached a $787.5 million settlement agreement after the network aired debunked conspiracy theories about the company’s voting machines.
But when asked if Lake had lost her 2022 bid for governor fair and square, Hammond said Lake had gotten “carried away” and “a little too much into conspiracy theories.” “She spent too much time at Mar-a-Lago and didn’t focus on Arizona,” Hammond added, though she said she supports Lake’s Senate bid.
Her husband, Tyler Hammond, said he supports Lake, but that “she said a lot of things that I think she should have kept quiet about, quite frankly, and I think it upset a lot of people.”
Lake refused to concede and failed in multiple lawsuits to overturn the results. Her claims after her loss landed her in a defamation lawsuit filed by Republican Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, which could compound her political woes with financial problems.
Lake’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on why some Trump supporters don’t believe she won the race for governor.
To this day, Lake refuses to concede her 2022 race for governor. In an interview with CNN on Monday night, she was repeatedly asked if she had lost two years ago. At each opportunity, she dodged. “Why are we looking back? I’m looking forward,” she said. When asked again, she said, “I think you actually wanted to ask me about the issues that people care about, and people care about our wide-open border.”
During her 2022 campaign, Lake lashed out at the patriarchal figure of Arizona Republican politics, the late Sen. John McCain. McCain supporters in Arizona are identified by the unofficial title “McCain Republicans,” a powerful sect within the state party. At a 2022 campaign rally in Tucson, Lake said, “We don’t have McCain Republicans here, right? Fuck off!”
Lake also said that McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain, “wants an end to America.”
Neil Rubin, 64, a grocery store worker from Peoria, said he was worried about the 2020 election but that the 2022 election was legitimate. Asked why Lake lost, Rubin said, “I think, honestly, the McCain Republicans in Arizona hate Donald Trump so much that they sat on the sidelines.” Despite Rubin’s reservations about Lake’s denial of the election, he plans to vote for her anyway.
But for other voters, Lake’s false claims about her election loss resonated.
Dana Morrison-Miller of Phoenix told NBC News at a Trump rally in June that Hobbs, the Democratic governor, is illegitimate. “I do believe there was election fraud in ’22,” Morrison-Miller said. “I don’t believe Katie Hobbs is our rightful governor. This needs to all come out.”
And Sally Foree, 66, a real estate agent from Ahwatukee, said Hobbs “absolutely stole that election.”
Barrett Marson, a Republican political consultant based in Phoenix, wasn’t surprised that some Trump supporters don’t believe Lake’s false claims.
“Donald Trump creates deep, emotional connections with his voters, and Kari Lake is more of a one-hit wonder,” Marson said. “Donald Trump is a unique political force that cannot be duplicated by his minions or followers.” He added: “There’s never been anyone like him, and he inspires such devotion in his fans that they believe everything he says, from immigrants eating cats and dogs to election denial.”