The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the way to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.
But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within the Kamala Harris campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.
Recent discussions have focused on the possibility of an anomaly this year where only part of the blue wall makes its way through. The discussions have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “falls” to former President Donald Trump while the other two states turn blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have devoted the most time and resources — she would fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House without winning another hard-fought state, or perhaps two.
“There has been some thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the biggest concern is Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also stressed their deep concern about Michigan. They still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory.
A Harris campaign spokesman pushed back against the idea of deep concern about Michigan, pointing to recent public polls. A Detroit News poll conducted Oct. 1-4 showed Harris, who campaigned in Michigan on Monday, with a slight lead in the state, as did a Washington Post poll conducted on Monday.
“We are absolutely fighting to win Michigan,” said Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt, who noted that Harris was there this week. “We think we will win Michigan.”
But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign has considered one of its best insurance options may also be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers pointed in interviews to the combination of North Carolina and Nevada electors as a strong alternative path for Harris if Trump wins Pennsylvania and claims its 19 electoral votes..
While North Carolina remains in the campaign’s crosshairs and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less optimistic about winning, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.
“Of all seven [states], that one seems to be slipping away a little bit,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
The devastation from Hurricane Helene — and the rampant misinformation that followed — are factors that could weigh against Harris in North Carolina the people said. One of the sources also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a possible factor. A series of scandals rocked Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s campaign, leaving him far behind Democrat Josh Stein in the polls; those developments have led to less local investment and intensity on the ground, the person said.
After President Joe Biden backed away from seeking the nomination on July 21 and endorsed Harris, the Democratic map expanded to include the six battleground states Biden won in 2020 — the three blue-wall states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — plus North Carolina. While the campaign had built infrastructure in those states under Biden, his stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration kept only the three blue-wall states in play. That changed when Harris entered the race. Suddenly, enthusiasm, fundraising and volunteer interest soared, and positive polling followed.
But now, as the Nov. 5 election approaches, Harris and Trump are locked in a contest with a margin of error.
Harris’s campaign has said all along that it has pursued a seven-state battleground strategy, pouring its vast resources into organizing, building infrastructure in rural areas and outpacing Republicans in advertising spending.
“I don’t see a blue wall path or a Sun Belt path or a Southern path. I see seven states that are as close together as you can get, all decided by margins on the ground,” Harris’s battleground state director Dan Kanninen said in a recent interview. “And so we’ve set up an operation that can win close races on the ground, expecting that. And frankly, any one of the seven has as good a chance as any other to be the tipping point steat.”
Since Harris’s entry, the campaign has viewed the blue wall states as central to her campaign path, but she has also viewed states like Nevada as essential to bolstering a victory even if Democrats maintain the blue wall in the event of legal challenges, according to three campaign officials.