KAZAN, Russia — Once again, the reality of war could shape the course of world politics.
This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood on a stage with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The war in Ukraine has brought Putin closer to both countries and more dependent on them. Without the support of Iran, and especially China, Russia would fare much worse on the battlefield.
But another world leader has become crucial to the Kremlin — a development that casts a shadow over Putin’s attempt here to portray himself as a world leader untainted by Western backlash against the war.
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is now reportedly sending thousands of troops to Russia. The U.S. says they are training in Russia’s far east and could find themselves in combat with Ukrainian soldiers.
North Korea’s forces are small so far, at least 3,000 according to the U.S., compared with the hundreds of thousands the West estimates have been killed on both sides in Ukraine. But it could allow Russia to reorganize and push forward, and if it works, North Korea could send more. It has a million-man army.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that reports that North Korea was sending troops to Russia were “fake and hype,” local media reported. The Kremlin has not directly denied the reports.
“I am very concerned,” James Stavridis, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former commander in chief of NATO forces, told MSNBC yesterday. “It’s a real boost for the Russians. And I can assure you that they will be well-trained, capable North Koreans.”
And it could also have a psychological impact on the already beleaguered Ukrainian forces, the implicit message from Russia being: “We can continue to fight for a long time.”
All this could also change the mentality in other countries.
The war is effectively spreading to Asia. What other leaders might decide to send their troops to the battlefield? And if a North Korean soldier is killed by NATO weapons, how will the often unpredictable Kim react?
This week, South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador, asking for the “immediate withdrawal” of North Korean troops from Russia. In a meeting with the ambassador, Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kim Hong-kyun, warned that Seoul “will respond with all available measures.”
Another political impact could be felt by the countries occupying the area between Russia and the West.
This week, Xi and Pezeshkian shared the stage with Putin. They were all partners of the US in trade and/or security. They are also members of the group known as BRICS — which represents 41.1 percent of the world’s population and 37.3 percent of gross domestic product — that gathered in the city for its annual summit.
As conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East escalate, it becomes harder to walk that neutral line.
“We are a partner of the United States and also a partner of other countries,” Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira told NBC News in an interview at the meeting in the eastern Russian city of Kazan.
Asked if he had raised with Putin the dangers of another country sending troops to fight Ukraine, he denied: “I’ve never heard of that. He didn’t tell me anything about it. I don’t know.”
Today, many ordinary Russians say they want peace.
On the streets of Kazan, where Putin met with world leaders and defied Western efforts to isolate him, three 18-year-old Russians told FactsTimes News they didn’t want to talk about the war in Ukraine.
Arseny, Danil and Bulat said a 22-year-old friend had signed up to fight and was wounded. “We are Russians,” Danil said, “we love everyone.” Like many in Russia, they declined to give their last names when they spoke to the media.
The small independent poll that exists in Russia suggests that most don’t want to lose in Ukraine, but they don’t want war either. So Putin’s ability to ask more of his people to fight may be waning.
That may be one reason he needs help from North Korea, and why his summit with international friends this week was so important to him. But solving one problem can create more problems.