WASHINGTON — Four years ago, President Donald Trump used his bully pulpit to spread lies about the election, inciting his supporters to act on their belief in massive voter fraud and ultimately attack the U.S. Capitol.
With days to go before the 2024 election, Trump and his allies are executing a similar playbook, trying to make voters believe the election may be “rigged.”
In addition to domestic disinformation campaigns, foreign government influence operations, foreign terrorist groups and domestic extremists are all simultaneously attempting to exploit the election for their own gain, according to dozens of pages of law enforcement documents and months of reporting by NBC News.
“We’ve described the threat environment as everything, everywhere, all at once,” Rebecca Weiner, the New York Police Department’s deputy commissioner for intelligence and counterterrorism, said in an interview describing the overall threat environment.
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One big difference this time around is that there’s a Democrat in the White House, and federal authorities, including the FBI and the broader Justice Department, have spent years trying to learn from their mistakes last time around when they arrested and prosecuted more than 1,500 Trump supporters for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. They, along with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — no longer a target of the sitting president — are already preparing to respond to attempts at election interference, both foreign and domestic.
But federal officials also caution that their role is limited by law and by customary practice, noting that state and local officials, not the federal government, are the primary authorities in elections. The Justice Department also has, by policy, a “quiet period” leading up to Election Day, during which it takes no public action that could affect an election. And the Justice Department may be hesitant to do anything that could be construed as political, given the extreme politicization of the country in 2024 and years of Republican accusations that it is being used “as a weapon” against Trump.
Attorney General Merrick Garland could theoretically use his own bully pulpit to push back against conspiracy theories about mass voter fraud once the post-Tuesday or post-election lull is over, a process that could take days, even weeks. But as 2020 showed, election lies can spread so quickly online that even media outlets will have trouble reporting the facts in a timely manner. Moreover, Trump and his allies have spent the past decade eroding public trust in the Justice Department and the FBI, diminishing the rhetorical power of those institutions.
“There is no white knight coming,” one federal law enforcement official told News, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe the stance of federal authorities in the coming weeks, after Election Day.
The Justice Department and FBI will focus primarily on reviewing violations of federal law. The Justice Department said in a statement that it plays an important role in “deterring and combating discrimination and intimidation at the ballot box, threats of violence against election officials and poll workers, and election fraud.”
But they won’t position themselves as a fact-checking agency that could quickly become political fodder. Even if federal authorities investigate an allegation and find it unfounded, it would not be standard to make it public, since the Justice Department’s normal practice is to speak through criminal charges, not to talk publicly about uncharged conduct.
Law enforcement officials across the country said they believe the 2024 election will have a more sustained drumbeat of partisan rhetoric and misinformation than the 2020 election. If the race is too close to predict for days or longer, the likelihood of threats of violence and actual violence will steadily increase.
Until electors officially cast their votes for president and vice president in state capitals across the country multiple group on Dec. 17, s in the U.S. and abroad will attempt to fill the information vacuum with threatening rhetoric and disinformation, the officials said.
Law enforcement officials expect the window for potential violence to be shortened. Instead of building over weeks and months, as in 2020, threats of violence could flare up intermittently as votes are counted and results are certified in the days and weeks following Tuesday.
While no immediate threat has materialized so far, since the results are not yet in, angry crowds quickly emerged online after the 2020 election, as right-wing organizers were quick to rally people to locations with false claims and conspiracy theories. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security have already warned in a joint intelligence bulletin that domestic extremists who believe in election-related conspiracy theories pose the most likely threat of election-related violence.
Still, the prospect of another January 6 seems unlikely. Security at the Capitol has been dramatically increased, with January 6 itself — the day Congress convenes to formally count the electoral votes — designated a National Special Security Event, providing more resources. Many of the leaders of far-right groups who helped orchestrate the attack on the Capitol are also in prison for their actions that day. Follow-up events have drawn small crowds as other Trump supporters worry, based on unfounded internet conspiracy theories, that the FBI could entrap them.
Millions of voters still believe Trump’s lies about the 2020 election, and the likely threat landscape, as viewed by federal authorities, is much more likely to involve individual actors — “lone wolves” or small groups that could attack polling places and state and local government buildings.
Despite their limitations, federal authorities have taken steps to prepare. The Justice Department has created an Election Threats Task Force focused on prosecuting people who threaten election officials, to combat an extraordinary threat environment for election workers across the county.
Garland said in a recent statement that the “warning from the Department of Justice remains clear: Anyone who illegally threatens an election worker, employee or volunteer will face consequences,” and the Justice Department will continue to aggressively investigate and prosecute anyone who threatens election officials in the chaotic weeks ahead.
“For our democracy to function, Americans who serve the public must be able to do their jobs without fear for their lives,” he said.
The FBI has also set up a National Election Command Post at its headquarters specifically focused on election threats, as is customary in an election year. It has conducted training and practice exercises and has monitored the country for potential threats of violence, as well as threats via social media and foreign interference.
“The command post will track status reports and significant complaints from FBI offices; monitor indicators of criminal attempts to interfere with the election process; identify trends; and provide guidance to FBI offices,” the FBI said in a statement. “In addition, the command post will coordinate any FBI response to any election-related incident.”
Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies have been involved in a series of more than 200 tabletop exercises and training operations over the past two years to prepare for potential scenarios on and after Election Day, including active shooters or bomb threats. U.S. officials said plans and processes are in place to deal with numerous potential threats and other issues. An official pointed to recent firebombings at polling places in the U.S. Northwest, noting that the incidents are being investigated and that potentially affected voters have been given the opportunity to fill out replacement ballots.
Two law enforcement officials expressed concern that a federal response to serious election problems could be chaotic and involve a “hodgepodge” of different state, local and federal law enforcement agencies and local election agencies. They worried that it could be difficult to communicate clearly and quickly with multiple agencies in a potentially chaotic or fluid situation.
Four other current and former law enforcement sources said they were concerned that disinformation and conspiracy theories could have an impact on some segments of the law enforcement community, particularly in parts of the country where Trump has significant support. The issue has been raised before. As NBC News reported, a week after the Jan. 6 attack, a senior FBI official warned that “a significant percentage” of the agency’s employees were “sympathetic” to the rioters who stormed the Capitol over election misinformation.
The Justice Department and the FBI have a more clearly defined role to play in combating foreign interference in U.S. elections, as evidenced by recent cases brought by federal prosecutors against Russian propagandists who paid right-wing, pro-Trump influencers millions of dollars to produce videos and by exposing the role China and Iran are trying to play in this year’s election.
Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said the post-election period is a key focus for foreign adversaries, including Russia, China and Iran, and that America’s “foreign adversaries understand that this period of uncertainty and ambiguity is one in which they can pit Americans against each other, to potentially incite violence, to incite discord, to undermine American confidence and the legitimacy of the vote.”
A Justice Department official said there are numerous investigations underway into potential violations of election law. The official expects robust investigative and prosecutorial measures in the post-election period for anything that meets the legal threshold.
There will certainly be incidents and disruptions in next week’s election, Easterly said, but it’s important for Amer, Easterly saidicans to know that those responsible will be investigated and held accountable.
“Election officials have been preparing for this for years. They’ve practiced for this. They’ve trained for this. We’ve worked directly with them to address all of these incidents and disruptions,” she said. “The process is working.”