Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a race that refuses to move beyond the polling margin of error despite historic developments — and external factors are starting to play an increasingly important role.
Two assassination attempts, a debate, controversies over conspiracy theories and Trump campaign theorists and more have largely failed to move the electoral needle in any significant way, leaving the players on the field looking for help from the stands before Election Day.
For Trump, a recent attempt to change the way Nebraska’s electoral votes are counted and changes to the rules in Georgia mark an attempt to gain advantages in key battleground states. Meanwhile, Harris is leaning on referendums on abortion access to juice turnout, while hoping a storm around North Carolina’s lieutenant governor and Republican gubernatorial candidate will subdue Republicans in the purple state.
Together, the maneuvers represent a way to find a lead, even if it’s on the margin, in a race that poll after poll shows remains a nail-biter.
“With a highly polarized electorate, a lot of these states and a lot of these elections come down to winning or losing on the margin, so every little bit helps,” said Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist from North Carolina.
“It’s an environment where a blowout is 3 points,” he added. “People are just stuck. Forty-seven percent of people are stuck on one side, 47% of people are stuck on the other side, and whichever candidate has the ability to move the needle on the margin is going to win.”
The need to find a lead is underscored in most national and swing state polls, which rarely show either side with a lead beyond the margin of error. The polling average of 538 has not moved beyond a 3.7-point lead for Harris since late July, a lead that will neither leave Democrats unmoved nor Republicans out of the race.
That’s not for lack of trying.
Two assassination attempts on Trump are the kind of black swan event that would normally generate a groundswell of goodwill for a candidate. On the other hand, Harris’ debate performance and the former president’s controversies over his comments about legal immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, and his ties to conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer could help improve the vice president’s standing in the political climate of yesteryear.
But with each candidate enjoying strong support, they’re being forced to look elsewhere for support.
Trump allies have pushed through new vote-counting rules in Georgia, including hand-counting ballots instead of relying on machines — a push the former president claims will help stamp out fraud but that experts say will instead lead to more errors.
He also waged a pressure campaign to have Nebraska’s electoral count be a winner-take-all system rather than allot Electoral College votes by congressional district, offering Harris a window to get one vote in Omaha. That effort died due to insufficient support among Republican state legislators.
Harris is banking that a base energized by abortion ballot initiatives will lift her to victory in target states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada. And Robinson’s scandal, involving posts on a chat forum for a pornographic website in which he called himself a “black NAZI,” among other things, is taking place in the one swing state that went for Trump in 2020 and Democrats believe is flippable.
When it comes to abortion referendums or hand-counting ballots or Robinson, you’re not moving a whole point here on anything. You’re maybe moving a couple thousand votes. And are these states going to come down to a couple thousand votes, is really the core question,” said one former senior Trump administration official. “You try to get your bits and pieces.”
The importance of the outside factors makes sense in a race where on candidate, Trump, has universal name recognition. Harris has room to cultivate voter perceptions of her, but also is a prominent political figure, having spent four years as a California senator and another nearly four years in her current office.
“A little bit,” a source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking said when asked if they were surprised by the overall lack of movement in the race. “We all how well-defined and well-known Trump is, so it should come as no surprise that it’s harder to move views of him. But I did expect, given voters’ lack of familiarity with the vice president, that by all accounts, a strong debate performance would have done more to move the needle for her.
Trump, Harris lean on outside factors to sway stubbornly competitive race
Those factors are starting to play increasingly
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a race that refuses to budge outside the polling margin of error despite historic developments — and outside factors are starting to play increasingly important roles.
Two assassination attempts, a debate, controversies over conspiracy theories and theorists from the Trump campaign and more have largely failed to move the electoral needle in any significant way, leaving the players on the court looking for help from the stands before Election Day.
For Trump, a recent push to change the way Nebraska’s electoral votes are tallied and changes to the rules in Georgia marked an effort to gain advantages in key battleground areas. Meanwhile, Harris is leaning on referenda on abortion access to juice turnout while hoping that a firestorm surrounding North Carolina Lt. Gov. and GOP gubernatorial nominee will depress Republicans in the purple .
“With a highly polarized electorate, a lot of these states and a lot of these elections come down to winning or losing on the margins, so every bit helps,” said North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.
“It’s an environment that a blowout is 3 points,” he added. “People are just locked in. Forty-seven percent of people are locked in on one side, 47% of people are locked in on the other side, and whatever candidate has that ability to move the needle in the margins is going to win.”
The need to find an edge has been underscored in most national and swing state polls, which rarely show either side having a lead outside the margin of error. The polling average from 538 hasn’t grown beyond a 3.7-point lead for Harris since the end of July, an edge that doesn’t leave Democrats sitting pretty or Republicans out of the game.
That’s not for lack of trying.
Two assassination attempts on Trump are the type of black swan event that would ordinarily fuel a flood of goodwill for a candidate. On the flip side, Harris’ debate performance and controversies around the former president about his remarks about legal immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, and affiliation with conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer might help lift the vice president’s standing in yesteryear’s political climate.
But with each candidate enjoying high floors of support, they’re forced to look elsewhere for boosts.
Trump allies pushed through new vote-counting rules in Georgia, including the hand tallying of ballots versus relying on machines — a push the former president has alleged will help weed out fraud but that experts have insisted will instead lead to more errors.
He also waged a pressure campaign to have Nebraska’s electoral count be a winner-take-all system rather than allot Electoral College votes by congressional district, offering Harris a window to get one vote in Omaha. That effort died due to insufficient support among Republican state legislators.
Harris is banking that a base energized by abortion ballot initiatives will lift her to victory in target states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada. And Robinson’s scandal, involving posts on a chat forum for a pornographic website in which he called himself a “black NAZI,” among other things, is taking place in the one swing state that went for Trump in 2020 and Democrats believe is flippable.
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“When it comes to abortion referendums or hand-counting ballots or Robinson, you’re not moving a whole point here on anything. You’re maybe moving a couple thousand votes. And are these states going to come down to a couple thousand votes, is really the core question,” said one former senior Trump administration official. “You try to get your bits and pieces.”
The importance of the outside factors makes sense in a race where on candidate, Trump, has universal name recognition. Harris has room to cultivate voter perceptions of her, but also is a prominent political figure, having spent four years as a California senator and another nearly four years in her current office.
“A little bit,” a source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking said when asked if they were surprised by the overall lack of movement in the race. “We all how well-defined and well-known Trump is, so it should come as no surprise that it’s harder to move views of him. But I did expect, given voters’ lack of familiarity with the vice president, that by all accounts, a strong debate performance would have done more to move the needle for her.”
“Look, [Trump] had the best 10 weeks of his political career this summer, and Harris has had the best 10 weeks of any Democrat ever running, and we’re exactly where we were three months ago,” added Dave Carney, a GOP strategist and head of a pro-Trump super PAC.
Leaning on outside factors isn’t a wholly original tactic.
Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, noted that former President George W. Bush leaned on anti-same sex marriage ballot initiatives to gin up enthusiasm among conservatives in 2004 and that former President Bill Clinton traveled in 2106 for a fundraiser in Utah, a deep red bastion, to try to make gains among Mormon voters who were skeptical of Trump. The Clinton campaign also released an op-ed in a state newspaper.
“Campaigns are looking for places where they can gain even a little bit of an advantage, sometimes that comes in unexpected places,” Finney said. “Given how close the margins are, you don’t want to leave anything on the table.”
It’s unclear how much the candidates will benefit.
Bush coasted the victory in 2004, but that win was largely attributed to the country reelecting a commander-in-chief during wartime. And Clinton famously lost to Trump.
But, strategists in both parties said, it’s at least worth a shot
“There isn’t anybody who doesn’t have an opinion about Donald Trump, and it’s not going to move,” said Peter Giangreco, a Democratic strategist and presidential campaign trail veteran. “So, if you can’t affect turnout, then what else are you going to do?”