It is clear what Russia stands to gain from an influx of some 10,000 North Korean troops to support the war in Ukraine. What is less clear is what Kim Jong Un stands to gain.
Pyongyang’s apparent imminent entry into Moscow’s war is a turning point that further complicates the international web of interests entangled in a conflict that is fast approaching its thousandth day. For many observers, the conflict threatens to escalate by linking rising tensions in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
Kim has spent months making increasing threats against his southern neighbors and working to upgrade his nuclear arsenal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has engaged in his own saber-rattling with the West as his military has lost dozens of men to make gains on the battlefield. Now the two are intensifying their partnership, alarming the United States and its allies.
“North Korea can gain experience with drones and real combat experience in a 21st century war,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told NBC News. “But that’s secondary to the strategic capabilities that they could get from Russia — and I think that’s what’s causing the concern on the South Korean side.”
The Pentagon confirmed Monday that about 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia for training and are expected to join the fight against Ukraine “in the coming weeks.” Some of those units have already begun moving west toward Ukraine and could join Kremlin forces struggling to push Ukrainian troops out of Russia’s Kursk region, the Pentagon said.
It’s not hard to see why Moscow seems to be pleased with the international outrage that this extraordinary invitation has generated.
Ukrainian troops broke through Russian defenses in August and seized a chunk of Russian territory in the Kursk region — a move widely seen as a blow to Putin’s prestige. Russia has managed to retake some of that territory, but has failed to expel the Ukrainian invaders and appears reluctant to divert troops from the war’s eastern front lines to do so.
North Korean troops are expected to help.
South Korea’s foreign and defense ministers are traveling to Washington on Wednesday and Thursday for meetings with their counterparts, following a briefing by NATO leadership on Monday.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a statement after the briefing that the alliance could now confirm that North Korean troops are in Russia and have been deployed in the Kursk region.
When asked by NBC’s Keir Simmons in Kazan last week for immediate comment on these developments, Putin stood firm:
“It is not Russia’s actions that have led to an escalation in Ukraine,” Putin said, blaming Washington and its NATO allies for arming and supporting Ukraine. As for the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, he did not deny the reports and instead referred to a mutual defense pact signed in Pyongyang in June.
But what exactly does Pyongyang get out of this?
Western and South Korean officials have previously suggested that North Korea was paid in various ways, including raw materials, food and, in some cases, cash. But Russian-North Korean relations have visibly deepened as the war in Ukraine continues.
A visit by Kim to Russia’s Vostochny spaceport last summer, which set the stage for a delivery of munitions to North Korea, was met with speculation that Putin was trading valuable Russian knowledge of space technologies that have significant overlaps with those used in a successful nuclear program.
“I think the question of whether that actually happens or not is the key,” Gabuev said.
According to the Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean spy agency reported Tuesday that North Korea was preparing for a failed attempt to launch a spy satellite with help from Russia. Their last attempt was on May 27, when the rocket carrying the satellite exploded during launch.
But sending troops is a more important commitment for North Korea than material. And it is largely driven by desperation on both sides of the relationship, analysts told NBC News.
Moscow desperately needs friends, especially those willing to contribute to the war effort. North Korea, in turn, needs a partner that will protect it from the United Nations Security Council as it pursues its nuclear ambitions.
“North Korea is trying to extract as much benefit as possible from this relationship,” said Edward Howell, a North Korea expert at the Chatham House think tank. “And it now has the full, unwavering support of Russia in the UN Security Council, which is extremely beneficial for North Korea, because it knows it can test missiles and provoke South Korea.”
“It can even conduct a nuclear test and get away with it, because sanctions simply won’t be imposed because of Russia’s veto,” he said.
There are other advantages for Kim’s regime.
Although North Korea has the world’s fourth-largest standing army — some 1.2 million troops — it has not fought a war in a long time. The vast front lines of war could become a kind of laboratory for modern warfare, giving Kim’s troops — and their generals — a chance to study.
This may explain why South Korea has been leading the way in sounding the alarm. Seoul has even gone so far as to say it is considering sending lethal military aid to help Ukraine. But Gabuev said South Korea is primarily concerned about strategic issues — such as its nuclear program.
“If thousands of North Korean troops learn how to survive on a battlefield full of drones,” Gabuev said, “that is less of a problem than North Korea having quieter nuclear submarines. And I think that is the explanation for South Korea’s fierce reaction.”